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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Grambling St.

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:249.0
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:345
Current SOS:345
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-9
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14249.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grambling St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10VCU (135.0)A10A94-65L0%0.0
11-16Iowa (157.0)B10A85-74L0%0.0
11-18South Dakota (91.0)SumA84-55L0%0.0
11-21Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA87-78L0%0.0
11-25UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACA76-82W100%0.0
11-27North Texas (235.0)CUSAA82-77L0%0.0
12-1Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA63-64W100%0.0
12-9Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA87-53L0%0.0
12-12Louisiana Monroe (219.0)SBA59-57L0%0.0
12-16Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)SlndA67-68W100%0.0
12-21East Carolina (274.0)AmerA76-68L0%0.0
12-28Seattle (165.0)WACA93-63L0%0.0
1-1Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH64-71L0%0.0
1-3Alabama St. (333.0)SWACH66-74L0%0.0
1-6Southern (315.0)SWACA80-69L0%0.0
1-8Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA61-72W100%0.0
1-13Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACH80-71W100%0.0
1-15Texas Southern (222.0)SWACH79-78W100%0.0
1-20Jackson St. (330.0)SWACA45-72W100%0.0
1-27Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACA68-69W100%0.0
1-29Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACA89-92W100%0.0
2-3Southern (315.0)SWACH69-68W100%0.0
2-5Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH81-72W100%0.0
2-10Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACA85-90W100%0.0
2-12Texas Southern (222.0)SWACA55-78W100%0.0
2-17Jackson St. (330.0)SWACH71-64W100%0.0
2-24Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)SWACH66-75L0%0.0
2-26Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH74-79L0%0.0
3-1Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA74-84W100%0.0
3-3Alabama St. (333.0)SWACA64-66W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grambling St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grambling St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grambling St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Grambling St.SWAC26.2826.2861.3361.335.965.96
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.344.3439.3939.39-0.92-0.92
Texas SouthernSWAC4.344.3446.8846.88-0.27-0.27
SouthernSWAC4.314.3141.3841.38-0.74-0.74
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.294.2948.3948.39-0.14-0.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.284.2810.0010.00-3.43-3.43
Jackson St.SWAC4.264.2635.7135.71-1.22-1.22
Alabama St.SWAC4.254.2524.1424.14-2.20-2.20
Alcorn St.SWAC4.224.2226.9226.92-1.95-1.95
Alabama A&MSWAC4.184.186.906.90-3.60-3.60
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.881.8844.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Grand CanyonWAC1.831.8364.5264.520.530.53
SeattleWAC1.801.8055.1755.170.190.19
IowaB101.771.7740.6240.62-0.33-0.33
Georgia TechACC1.751.7541.9441.94-0.28-0.28
Louisiana MonroeSB1.751.7544.4444.44-0.19-0.19
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.751.7565.5265.520.540.54
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.751.7551.7251.720.060.06
North TexasCUSA1.751.7541.3841.38-0.30-0.30
East CarolinaAmer1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
South DakotaSum1.671.6772.4172.410.750.75
VCUA101.671.6753.1253.120.100.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.270.2783.3383.330.180.18
UMKCWAC0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
TulaneAmer0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.190.193.333.33-0.18-0.18
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1680.0080.000.100.10
BaylorB120.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
SMUAmer0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
UABCUSA0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
MichiganB100.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
OregonP120.150.1564.7164.710.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
UCFAmer0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Texas St.SB0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
SamfordSC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1115.6215.62-0.08-0.08
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
TroySB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
HoustonAmer0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
TulsaAmer0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Washington St.P120.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UtahP120.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
HawaiiBW0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.098.008.00-0.07-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
Iowa St.B120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DenverSum0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
DaytonA100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
CreightonBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.066.676.67-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
MercerSC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
WashingtonP120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0332.3532.35-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00